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March 26 2021 Market Commentary

  Len Martinez PhD CPA -  President Bull Valley Advisors "INVESTING IN VALUE STOCKS WITH POSITIVE PRICE MOMENTUM" Wall Street closed in the green on Friday as stocks related to an economic reopening performed better again. Also, bank shares rose after the Federal Reserve announced that restrictions on bank holding company dividends and share repurchases currently in place will end for most firms after 30 June 2021. On the macro front, PCE figures showed that personal income fell less than expected, whereas spending declined at a faster pace and prices point to tame inflation. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 1.665%. The Dow Jones gained 453 points or 1.4% to 33,072. The S&P 500 increased 65 points or 1.7% to 3975, another record close. The Nasdaq added 161 points or 1.2% to 13,139. During the week, the Dow Jones climbed 1.4% and the S&P 1.6%, whereas the Nasdaq dropped 0.6%. All eyes turn to the US employment report next week, which will pro...

March 24 2020 Market Commentary

Wall Street closed in the red on Wednesday amid a sharp decline in tech shares, as the market rotation out of growth names continued. On the pandemic side, the WHO warned that many regions are seeing rises in COVID-19 contagions, with Germany, France, Chile and Brasil enforcing stricter lockdowns. On the macro side, oil prices rebounded 6% and boosted share prices in the energy sector, while the 10-year Treasury yield held steady at around 1.64%. The Dow Jones lost 2 points or less than 0.1% to 32,421. The S&P 500 shed 21 points or 0.6% to 3889. The Nasdaq 266 points or 2% to 12,962. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged higher to 1.64% on Wednesday after touching 1.59% early in the session as investors digest Fed Chair comments during his second appearance before Congress this week. Powell persistently played down inflation risks and higher yields and reiterated the US economic recovery is strengthening but remains far from complete. The 10-year yield...

March 23 2020 Market Commentary

Wall Street closed deeply in the red on Tuesday, as Fed Jerome Powell Chairman said the economic recovery still has a long way to go. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeated that the American economy is recovering from the coronavirus at a hearing before House lawmakers, but that some sectors “remain weak”. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury continued to decline and settle near 1.62%, while oil prices plunged more than 6% amid the threat of a third wave of global infections. The Dow Jones shed 308 points or 0.9% to 32,423. The S&P 500 retreated 30 points or 0.8% to 3911. The Nasdaq declined 150 points or 1.1% to 13,228. The dollar index regained ground on Tuesday, touching a two-week high of 92.30 as a shift in risk appetite has favored safe-haven flows, while the overall outperformance of the US economy relative to the rest of the world supercharged this buying momentum. In the broader scenario, the combination of ultra-easy monetary policy, u...

March 19 2021 Market Commentary

Dow Jones fell for the second day on Friday after Fed’s decision not to extend its capital break for banks triggered a rise in bond yields and a sell-off in financial stocks. The rule allowed banks to hold less capital against Treasury and other holdings. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America slid more than 3% following the policy announcement. The Dow Jones close 234 points or 0.7% lower to 32,628, while the S&P 500 shed 3 points or 0.1% to 3913. In contrast, the Nasdaq gained 99 points or 0.8% to 13,215. During the week, the Dow Jones retreated 0.4%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.7% and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Next week, flash PMI surveys for the US, UK, Eurozone, Japan and Australia will give an insight about the state of the global economic recovery, while central banks in China, Philippines, Thailand, Switzerland, Mexico and South Africa will be deciding on monetary policy. Other important releases to follow include US final Q4 GDP, durable goods orders, and personal in...

Market Update March 16 2021

Wall Street closed little mixed with the Nasdaq eking out a modest gain, as investors stood cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy decision and rate guidance. On Tuesday, data showed that retail sales fell more than expected, falling 3%. However, January’s figure was revised to a 7.6% advance from a preliminary 5.3% increase. The Dow Jones lost 128 points or 0.4% to 32,826 and the S&P 500 decreased 6 points or 0.2% to 3963, as both retreated from records. In contrast, the Nasdaq gained 12 points or 0.1% to 13,472. The dollar index consolidated around 91.80 on Tuesday, with investors cautious ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting later this week that may provide clues on whether the central bank will move away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. Market participants anticipate that the Fed will upgrade growth projections due to the successful vaccine rollout and Washington’s massive stimulus package. On top of that, the recent tumult in the bond market sparked further specu...

Market Update March 12, 2021

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Wall Street closed little mixed with the Nasdaq declining but the Dow Jones and S&P notching new records, as fiscal stimulus and reopening prospects nudged sentiment. On the policy side, President Joe Biden announced Thursday evening in his first primetime address that he would direct states to make all adults eligible for a vaccine by May 1, and also set a goal for Americans to be able to gather in person with their friends and loved ones in small groups to celebrate the Fourth of July. On the macro side, the 10-year Treasury yield increased to a more than a year high of 1.628% (vs. 0.92% at the beginning of the year), as inflation expectations continue to climb. The Dow Jones added 292 points or 0.9% to 32,778. The S&P 500 edged up 4 points or 0.1% to 3943. In contrast, the Nasdaq shed 79 points or 0.6% to 13,320. During the week, the Dow Jones surged 3.7%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 2%.  US Market Overview - At weeks end, every major US Market In...

Market Update March 10, 2021

Wall Street closed mostly in the green on Wednesday and the Dow Jones notched a new record, as fiscal aid advanced as expected and yields declined. On the policy side, House Democrats passed the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill that includes extensions for jobless benefits and stimulus checks so President Joe Biden can sign it by Friday. On the macro side, the 10-year Treasury yield was down 2 basis points to 1.52%. Meanwhile, consumer prices jumped 0.4% on a monthly basis, with the Consumer Price Index up 1.7% on an annual basis. On the corporate side, shares of Tesla fell 1% after soaring 20% in the previous session. The Dow Jones gained 463 points or 1.5% to 32,296. The S&P 500 jumped 23 points or 0.6% to 3899. In contrast, the Nasdaq lost 5 points or less than 0.1% to 13,069. The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note rose slightly to 1.52% on Wednesday afternoon, from a session low of 1.514%, after Treasury auctioned $38 billion in 10-year notes at 1.523%. Bon...